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“2018年对于全球经济来说十分不平凡,这是很多人眼中艰难的一年。全球经济局势景气不足,国际局势扑朔迷离,地缘政治局势复杂、全球去杠杆进程如火如荼、贸易谈判徘徊不前… 2019已经到来,很多2018年我们面临的困难并未解决。我们应该如何适应新的一年?如何在扑朔迷离的经济环境中寻找新的增长和方向?金融界特邀经济学家与您一起探路2019,问道未来!”

嘉宾介绍
本期嘉宾:Ricard Torné

ag竞咪厅官网FocusEconomics首席经济学家

主要观点

中国零售产业将强劲增长

2019全球经济增速预计为2.9%

全球经济下行压力仍将持续

中国2019零售产业将强劲增长

金融界:关于中国的消费:中国4月份名义零售额暴跌。你预计2019年中国零售销售增长将维持在什么范围?应该如何弥补这种情况?

Ricard Torné尽管不确定的经济中国经济前景对中国今年的家庭支出的影响,但根据我们目前有的数据信息预测,中国今年的零售销售增长预计将强劲增长8.6%

为解决零售环境的恶化,政府短期内应继续推行补贴购买汽车和家用电器等产品的政策。此外,当局应放宽金融监管从而刺激消费者借贷。从长远来看,政府必须努力确保家庭收入的持续增长,保持就业市场的活力,同时加强社会保障网,以支持消费。在中国目前的消费环境里,这样的长短期政策都属于现有政策的一致性延续。

2019全球经济增速预计为2.9%

金融界:关于全球增长预测:2019年全球经济的大致增长率是多少?

 Ricard TornéFocus Economics共识预测小组成员预计,今年全球经济将增长2.9%,这将意味着与去年3.2%的增长相比有所放缓。

2017年和2018年,一半以上的世界经济体经济增速加快。两年中,发达经济体以2.2% 速度稳定增长,许多国家的增长率上升到接近潜在增长率,一些发达经济体的失业率 降至历史低点。在发展中经济体中,东亚和南亚地区继续保持相对强劲的增势,2018 年增长率分别达到5.8%5.6%。许多商品出口国,特别是燃料出口国,即便在面对价格 波动的局面没有改善的情况下,仍呈现逐步复苏的态势。

2014/15年度商品市场大幅下跌的影响仍继续对财政和外部平衡造成压力,并造成债务高企。 2018年,美利坚合众国财政措施引发的增长加速,抵消了其他一些大型经济体的增速放缓,使全球经济增长稳定在2.9%。预计2019年,全球经济将以3%的速度稳步增 长,但是越来越多的迹象表明增速可能已经达到顶峰。2018年,全球工业生产和商品 贸易增速逐步趋缓,贸易密集型资本和中间产品部门尤为明显。

主要指标显示,首都金融压力和波动风险显现、地缘政治关系紧张,2019年许多国家的经济 增势将会减弱。同时,一些发达经济体面临的生产能力约束,可能会对短期增长产生影响。预计今年全球经济增长将失去动力,主要是由于发达经济体的动力减弱,这些经济体正接近其经济周期的尾声。也就是说,全球经济应该得到劳动力市场紧缩、货币政策宽松和财政刺激的支持。 

全球经济下行压力仍将持续

金融界:全球经济发展建议:你预计全球经济何时摆脱下行压力? 

Ricard Torné今年年初,全球的经济复苏势头良好,并且还延续了去年年末的上升趋势,然而,就在今年4月以后,随着美联储的持续加息,全球市场上的流动性减少,美元升值,国际原油市场波动等的影响,经济扩张的速度明显放缓,同时,一些新兴市场国家还出现了金融动荡的现象,促使全球经济下行压力增大。 

虽然我们的分析师小组预计,全球经济增长将在第二季度触底,并在下半年加速,但美国和中国、欧盟和日本之间的贸易紧张关系局面,或使复苏面临风险,全球经济稳步增长掩盖了一些短期风险的积累,而这种风险可以严重扰乱经济活动,对长期发展前景造成损害 

宏观经济严重失衡、外债高筑等脆弱性严重的国家,特别容易受到这种干扰。随着全球政策空间大幅缩小,任何外部冲击都可能对全球增长和社会经济状况产生持久的重大影响。综上,全球经济复苏迹象和潜力尚不明显。


以下为访谈部分内容:

1. About China’s consumption:

JRJ: China’s nominal retail sales plummets in April. 

What range do you expect China's retail sales growth to maintain in 2019?

Ricard Torné: While an uncertain economic outlook will weigh on household spending this year, retail sales growth is expected to expand a robust 8.6% this year according to our projections. 

Faced with this situation, what policies should the Chinese government adopt?

In the short-run, the government should continue with its policy of subsidizing the purchase of certain items such as cars and home appliances. Moreover, authorities should ease financial regulation to spur consumer borrowing. 

From a longer-term perspective, the government must strive to ensure sustained growth in household income and maintain dynamism in the job market, while also strengthening the social safety net in order to support consumption. 

2. About global growth forecast:

JRJ: What is the approximate growth rate for the global economy in 2019?

Ricard Torné: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expected the global economy to expand 2.9% this year, which would represent a deceleration from last year’s 2.9% expansion.

In 2017 and 2018, more than half of the world's economies grew faster. Over the past two years, developed economies have grown steadily at a rate of 2.2 per cent. Growth rates in many countries have risen to near potential growth rates, and unemployment rates in some developed economies have fallen to historic lows. 

Among developing economies, East Asia and South Asia continued to maintain relatively strong growth, with growth rates reaching 5.8% and 5.6% respectively in 2018. Many commodity-exporting countries, especially fuel-exporting countries, have shown a gradual recovery even though they have not improved in the face of price fluctuations.

The impact of the sharp fall in commodity markets in 2014/15 continues to put pressure on fiscal and external balances and create high debt levels. In 2018, the accelerated growth spurred by fiscal measures in the United States of America offset the slowdown in other large economies, stabilizing global economic growth at 2.9%. 

The global economy is expected to grow steadily at a rate of 3% in 2019, but there are growing signs that growth may have peaked. In 2018, the growth rate of global industrial production and commodity trade gradually slowed down, especially in the trade-intensive capital and intermediate products sectors. 

Major indicators show that economic growth in many countries will weaken in 2019 due to the escalation of trade disputes, financial pressures and volatility risks, and geopolitical tensions. At the same time, production capacity constraints faced by some developed economies may have an impact on short-term growth.

What are the reasons for this assertion?

Global economic growth is expected to lose steam this year mostly due to softer dynamics among developed economies, which are approaching the tail-end of their economic cycles. That said, the global economy should be supported by tight labor markets, still accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus.

3. Advice on global economic development:

JRJ: When do you expect the global economy to emerge from the downward pressure?

Ricard Torné: At the beginning of this year, the global economic recovery was good and continued the upward trend at the end of last year. 

However, just after April this year, with the continued interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve, the decrease of liquidity in the global market, the appreciation of the dollar and the fluctuation of the international crude oil market, the speed of economic expansion slowed down significantly.

At the same time, some emerging market countries also experienced financial turmoil. The phenomenon has increased the downward pressure on the global economy.

While our panel of analysts projected that global growth would bottom out in Q2 and accelerate in the second half of the year, renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the European Union and Japan put the recovery at risk.



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